2026 Rhode Island · U.S. House
RI-01 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Gabe Amo a 98% chance of winning the 2026 race for RI-01 over Republican Kellie Keenan (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 98%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 97.6% / 2.4%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 98.0% / 2.0%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.4 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Share prices
Each contract pays $1 if that outcome happens. The price is what traders are paying now, so 60¢ means roughly a 60% chance. Bid is the best offer to buy, ask the best offer to sell.
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Amo | 97¢ | 94¢ | 99¢ | 99¢ | 0¢ |
| Kellie Keenan | 2¢ | 1¢ | 4¢ | 5¢ | 0¢ |
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Amo | 98¢ | 97¢ | 98¢ | 97¢ | — |
| Kellie Keenan | 2¢ | 1¢ | 3¢ | 4¢ | 0¢ |
Price history
Democratic odds rose 3.3 points over the past 3 months, from 95% to 98%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Gabe Amo (D) | 97.6% | $869 |
| Kellie Keenan (R) | 2.4% | $780 |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Gabe Amo (D) | 98.0% | $13K |
| Kellie Keenan (R) | 2.0% | $30K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 RI-01 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Gabe Amo a 98% chance of winning the 2026 race for RI-01 over Republican Kellie Keenan (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 98%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 98%, Republicans 2%. Polymarket: Democrats 98%, Republicans 2%. The two exchanges differ by 0.4 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Rhode Island races in 2026
- Rhode Island GovernorD 96%
- RI-02 HouseD 98%
- Rhode Island SenateD 99%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 RI-01 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/ri-1/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.