2026 Rhode Island · U.S. House
RI-02 House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Seth Magaziner a 98% chance of winning the 2026 race for RI-02 over Republican Victor Mellor (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 98%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 97.3% / 2.7%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 98.5% / 1.5%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.2 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Magaziner (D) | 97.3% | $550 |
| Victor Mellor (R) | 2.7% | $6K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Magaziner (D) | 98.5% | $19K |
| Victor Mellor (R) | 1.5% | $29K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 RI-02 House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Seth Magaziner a 98% chance of winning the 2026 race for RI-02 over Republican Victor Mellor (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 98%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 97%, Republicans 3%. Polymarket: Democrats 98%, Republicans 2%. The two exchanges differ by 1.2 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Rhode Island races in 2026
- Rhode Island GovernorD 96%
- RI-01 HouseD 98%
- Rhode Island SenateD 99%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 RI-02 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/ri-2/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.