2026 Senate
Rhode Island Senate race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Jack Reed a 99% chance of winning the 2026 Rhode Island Senate race over Republican Raymond McKay (Kalshi 99%, Polymarket 99%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 99.1% / 0.9%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 99.2% / 0.8%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.0 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds rose 4.2 points over the past 3 months, from 95% to 99%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Reed (D) | 99.1% | $19K |
| Raymond McKay (R) | 0.9% | $5K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Reed (D) | 99.2% | $8K |
| Raymond McKay (R) | 0.8% | $19K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 Rhode Island Senate race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Jack Reed a 99% chance of winning the 2026 Rhode Island Senate race over Republican Raymond McKay (Kalshi 99%, Polymarket 99%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 99%, Republicans 1%. Polymarket: Democrats 99%, Republicans 1%. The two exchanges differ by 0.0 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Rhode Island races in 2026
- Rhode Island GovernorD 96%
- RI-01 HouseD 98%
- RI-02 HouseD 98%
Closest Senate races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Rhode Island Senate race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/senate/rhode-island/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.