2026 Governor
Michigan governor race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Jocelyn Benson a 94% chance of winning the 2026 Michigan governor race over Republican John James (Kalshi 92%, Polymarket 95%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 92.2% / 7.5%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 95.4% / 4.6%
- Gap between exchanges
- 3.2 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds rose 10.5 points over the past 3 months, from 83% to 94%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Jocelyn Benson (D) | 92.2% | $80K |
| John James (R) | 7.5% | $162K |
| Mike Duggan (I) | 0.3% | $124K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Jocelyn Benson (D) | 95.4% | $71K |
| John James (R) | 4.6% | $166K |
| Independent candidate | 0.1% | $799 |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 Michigan governor race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Jocelyn Benson a 94% chance of winning the 2026 Michigan governor race over Republican John James (Kalshi 92%, Polymarket 95%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 92%, Republicans 7%. Polymarket: Democrats 95%, Republicans 5%. The two exchanges differ by 3.2 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have risen 0.9 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Michigan races in 2026
- MI-01 HouseR 91%
- MI-10 HouseD 66%
- MI-11 HouseD 97%
- MI-12 HouseD 99%
- MI-13 HouseD 99%
- MI-02 HouseR 99%
- MI-03 HouseD 97%
- MI-04 HouseR 52%
- MI-05 HouseR 93%
- MI-06 HouseD 98%
- MI-07 HouseD 58%
- MI-08 HouseD 94%
- MI-09 HouseR 96%
- Michigan SenateD 72%
Closest governor races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Michigan governor race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/governor/michigan/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.