2026 Michigan · U.S. House

MI-12 House race odds

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Rashida Tlaib a 99% chance of winning the 2026 race for MI-12 over Republican James Hooper (Kalshi 99%, Polymarket 99%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

Rashida Tlaib (D)99%
James Hooper (R) 1%
Market rating
Safe D
Kalshi (D / R)
98.9% / 1.1%
Polymarket (D / R)
99.5% / 0.5%
Gap between exchanges
0.6 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds rose 3.2 points over the past 3 months, from 96% to 99%.

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 5Aug 19Oct 3
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Jul 5 – Oct 3

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Rashida Tlaib (D)98.9%$329
James Hooper (R)1.1%$821

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Rashida Tlaib (D)99.5%$22K
James Hooper (R)0.5%$19K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 MI-12 House race?

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Rashida Tlaib a 99% chance of winning the 2026 race for MI-12 over Republican James Hooper (Kalshi 99%, Polymarket 99%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 99%, Republicans 1%. Polymarket: Democrats 99%, Republicans 1%. The two exchanges differ by 0.6 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other Michigan races in 2026

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Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 MI-12 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/mi-12/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.