2026 California · U.S. House
CA-01 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Mike McGuire a 93% chance of winning the 2026 race for CA-01 over Republican James Gallagher (Kalshi 92%, Polymarket 94%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 91.7% / 8.3%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 94.1% / 5.9%
- Gap between exchanges
- 2.4 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds fell 1.7 points over the past 3 months, from 95% to 93%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Mike McGuire (D) | 91.7% | $2K |
| James Gallagher (R) | 8.3% | $8K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Mike McGuire (D) | 94.1% | $27K |
| James Gallagher (R) | 5.9% | $10K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 CA-01 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Mike McGuire a 93% chance of winning the 2026 race for CA-01 over Republican James Gallagher (Kalshi 92%, Polymarket 94%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 92%, Republicans 8%. Polymarket: Democrats 94%, Republicans 6%. The two exchanges differ by 2.4 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have fallen 1.5 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
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- CA-23 HouseR 94%
- CA-24 HouseD 98%
- CA-25 HouseD 96%
- CA-26 HouseD 95%
- CA-27 HouseD 96%
- CA-28 HouseD 97%
- CA-29 HouseD 96%
- CA-03 HouseD 97%
- CA-30 HouseD 97%
- CA-31 HouseD 97%
- CA-32 HouseD 97%
- CA-33 HouseD 95%
- CA-34 HouseD 100%
- CA-35 HouseD 99%
- CA-36 HouseD 97%
- CA-37 HouseD 97%
- CA-38 HouseD 98%
- CA-39 HouseD 96%
- CA-04 HouseD 97%
- CA-41 HouseD 96%
- CA-42 HouseD 97%
- CA-43 HouseD 97%
- CA-44 HouseD 98%
- CA-45 HouseD 94%
- CA-46 HouseD 96%
- CA-47 HouseD 95%
- CA-48 HouseD 91%
- CA-49 HouseD 97%
- CA-05 HouseR 91%
- CA-50 HouseD 97%
- CA-51 HouseD 97%
- CA-52 HouseD 97%
- CA-06 HouseD 95%
- CA-07 HouseD 97%
- CA-08 HouseD 97%
- CA-09 HouseD 97%
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Data
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Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 CA-01 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/ca-1/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.