2026 California · U.S. House
CA-05 House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Tom McClintock a 91% chance of winning the 2026 race for CA-05 over Democrat Michael Masuda (Kalshi 92%, Polymarket 91%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 8.0% / 92.0%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 9.1% / 90.9%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.1 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Tom McClintock (R) | 92.0% | $3K |
| Michael Masuda (D) | 8.0% | $17K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Tom McClintock (R) | 90.9% | $8K |
| Michael Masuda (D) | 9.1% | $10K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 CA-05 House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Tom McClintock a 91% chance of winning the 2026 race for CA-05 over Democrat Michael Masuda (Kalshi 92%, Polymarket 91%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 8%, Republicans 92%. Polymarket: Democrats 9%, Republicans 91%. The two exchanges differ by 1.1 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
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- CA-33 HouseD 95%
- CA-34 HouseD 100%
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- CA-38 HouseD 98%
- CA-39 HouseD 97%
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- CA-41 HouseD 96%
- CA-42 HouseD 97%
- CA-43 HouseD 97%
- CA-44 HouseD 98%
- CA-45 HouseD 94%
- CA-46 HouseD 96%
- CA-47 HouseD 95%
- CA-48 HouseD 91%
- CA-49 HouseD 97%
- CA-50 HouseD 96%
- CA-51 HouseD 97%
- CA-52 HouseD 96%
- CA-06 HouseD 94%
- CA-07 HouseD 97%
- CA-08 HouseD 97%
- CA-09 HouseD 97%
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Data
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Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 CA-05 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/ca-5/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.