2026 Kentucky · U.S. House
KY-06 House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Ralph Alvarado a 75% chance of winning the 2026 race for KY-06 over Democrat Zach Dembo (Kalshi 76%, Polymarket 74%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Likely R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 23.9% / 76.1%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 26.0% / 74.0%
- Gap between exchanges
- 2.2 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Ralph Alvarado (R) | 76.1% | $9K |
| Zach Dembo (D) | 23.9% | $22K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Ralph Alvarado (R) | 74.0% | $24K |
| Zach Dembo (D) | 26.0% | $30K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 KY-06 House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Ralph Alvarado a 75% chance of winning the 2026 race for KY-06 over Democrat Zach Dembo (Kalshi 76%, Polymarket 74%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 24%, Republicans 76%. Polymarket: Democrats 26%, Republicans 74%. The two exchanges differ by 2.2 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Kentucky races in 2026
- KY-01 HouseR 96%
- KY-02 HouseR 96%
- KY-03 HouseD 97%
- KY-04 HouseR 96%
- KY-05 HouseR 97%
- Kentucky SenateR 97%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 KY-06 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/ky-6/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.