2026 Senate
Kentucky Senate race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Andy Barr a 97% chance of winning the 2026 Kentucky Senate race over Democrat Charles Booker (Kalshi 96%, Polymarket 97%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 4.1% / 95.9%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 2.7% / 97.3%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.3 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Barr (R) | 95.9% | $80K |
| Charles Booker (D) | 4.1% | $92K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Barr (R) | 97.3% | $29K |
| Charles Booker (D) | 2.7% | $8K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 Kentucky Senate race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Andy Barr a 97% chance of winning the 2026 Kentucky Senate race over Democrat Charles Booker (Kalshi 96%, Polymarket 97%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 4%, Republicans 96%. Polymarket: Democrats 3%, Republicans 97%. The two exchanges differ by 1.3 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Kentucky races in 2026
- KY-01 HouseR 96%
- KY-02 HouseR 96%
- KY-03 HouseD 97%
- KY-04 HouseR 96%
- KY-05 HouseR 97%
- KY-06 HouseR 75%
Closest Senate races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Kentucky Senate race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/senate/kentucky/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.