2026 Kentucky · U.S. House
KY-04 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Ed Gallrein a 96% chance of winning the 2026 race for KY-04 over Democrat Melissa Strange (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 97%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 5.3% / 94.7%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 2.7% / 97.3%
- Gap between exchanges
- 2.7 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Share prices
Each contract pays $1 if that outcome happens. The price is what traders are paying now, so 60¢ means roughly a 60% chance. Bid is the best offer to buy, ask the best offer to sell.
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Gallrein | 94¢ | 92¢ | 96¢ | 96¢ | 0¢ |
| Melissa Claire Strange | 5¢ | 3¢ | 8¢ | 6¢ | 0¢ |
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Gallrein | 96¢ | 96¢ | 97¢ | 96¢ | — |
| Melissa Strange | 3¢ | 3¢ | 3¢ | 3¢ | 0¢ |
Price history
Democratic odds fell 3.6 points over the past 3 months, from 8% to 4%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Ed Gallrein (R) | 94.7% | $14K |
| Melissa Claire Strange (D) | 5.3% | $28K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Ed Gallrein (R) | 97.3% | $30K |
| Melissa Strange (D) | 2.7% | $17K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 KY-04 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Ed Gallrein a 96% chance of winning the 2026 race for KY-04 over Democrat Melissa Strange (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 97%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 5%, Republicans 95%. Polymarket: Democrats 3%, Republicans 97%. The two exchanges differ by 2.7 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have risen 1.3 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Kentucky races in 2026
- KY-01 HouseR 96%
- KY-02 HouseR 96%
- KY-03 HouseD 97%
- KY-05 HouseR 97%
- KY-06 HouseR 74%
- Kentucky SenateR 97%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 KY-04 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/ky-4/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.