2026 Kentucky · U.S. House
KY-03 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Morgan McGarvey a 97% chance of winning the 2026 race for KY-03 over Republican Maria Rodriguez (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 97%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 97.3% / 2.7%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 97.5% / 2.5%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.2 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Share prices
Each contract pays $1 if that outcome happens. The price is what traders are paying now, so 60¢ means roughly a 60% chance. Bid is the best offer to buy, ask the best offer to sell.
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan McGarvey | 97¢ | 94¢ | 99¢ | 97¢ | 0¢ |
| Maria Rodriguez | 3¢ | 1¢ | 4¢ | 4¢ | 0¢ |
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan McGarvey | 96¢ | 94¢ | 98¢ | 94¢ | 0¢ |
| Maria Rodriguez | 3¢ | 2¢ | 3¢ | 3¢ | — |
Price history
Democratic odds rose 3.9 points over the past 3 months, from 93% to 97%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Morgan McGarvey (D) | 97.3% | $706 |
| Maria Rodriguez (R) | 2.7% | $3K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Morgan McGarvey (D) | 97.5% | $18K |
| Maria Rodriguez (R) | 2.5% | $27K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 KY-03 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Morgan McGarvey a 97% chance of winning the 2026 race for KY-03 over Republican Maria Rodriguez (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 97%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 97%, Republicans 3%. Polymarket: Democrats 97%, Republicans 3%. The two exchanges differ by 0.2 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have risen 0.7 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Kentucky races in 2026
- KY-01 HouseR 96%
- KY-02 HouseR 96%
- KY-04 HouseR 96%
- KY-05 HouseR 97%
- KY-06 HouseR 74%
- Kentucky SenateR 97%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 KY-03 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/ky-3/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.