2026 Senate

Illinois Senate race odds

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Juliana Stratton a 98% chance of winning the 2026 Illinois Senate race over Republican Don Tracy (Kalshi 99%, Polymarket 98%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

Juliana Stratton (D)98%
Don Tracy (R) 2%
Market rating
Safe D
Kalshi (D / R)
98.7% / 1.3%
Polymarket (D / R)
97.9% / 2.1%
Gap between exchanges
0.8 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds rose 2.5 points over the past 3 months, from 96% to 98%.

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 5Aug 19Oct 3
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Jul 5 – Oct 3

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Juliana Stratton (D)98.7%$10K
Don Tracy (R)1.3%$8K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Juliana Stratton (D)97.9%$17K
Don Tracy (R)2.1%$17K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 Illinois Senate race?

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Juliana Stratton a 98% chance of winning the 2026 Illinois Senate race over Republican Don Tracy (Kalshi 99%, Polymarket 98%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 99%, Republicans 1%. Polymarket: Democrats 98%, Republicans 2%. The two exchanges differ by 0.8 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds have risen 0.6 points since Sep 26, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other Illinois races in 2026

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Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Illinois Senate race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/senate/illinois/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.