2026 Illinois · U.S. House
IL-04 House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Patty Garcia a 95% chance of winning the 2026 race for IL-04 over Republican Lupe Castillo (Kalshi 94%, Polymarket 96%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 94.2% / 1.8%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 95.8% / 4.2%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.6 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Patty Garcia (D) | 94.2% | $6K |
| Chris Getty (I) | 3.5% | $4K |
| Lupe Castillo (R) | 1.8% | $5K |
| Mayra Macías (I) | 0.5% | $3K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Patty Garcia (D) | 95.8% | $46K |
| Lupe Castillo (R) | 4.2% | $16K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 IL-04 House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Patty Garcia a 95% chance of winning the 2026 race for IL-04 over Republican Lupe Castillo (Kalshi 94%, Polymarket 96%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 94%, Republicans 2%. Polymarket: Democrats 96%, Republicans 4%. The two exchanges differ by 1.6 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Illinois races in 2026
- Illinois GovernorD 97%
- IL-01 HouseD 96%
- IL-10 HouseD 97%
- IL-11 HouseD 98%
- IL-12 HouseR 97%
- IL-13 HouseD 96%
- IL-14 HouseD 98%
- IL-15 HouseR 96%
- IL-16 HouseR 96%
- IL-17 HouseD 98%
- IL-02 HouseD 97%
- IL-03 HouseD 97%
- IL-05 HouseD 97%
- IL-06 HouseD 98%
- IL-07 HouseD 98%
- IL-08 HouseD 94%
- IL-09 HouseD 96%
- Illinois SenateD 98%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 IL-04 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/il-4/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.