2026 Illinois · U.S. House
IL-11 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Bill Foster a 98% chance of winning the 2026 race for IL-11 over Republican Jeff Walter (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 98%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 97.7% / 2.3%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 97.9% / 2.1%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.2 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Share prices
Each contract pays $1 if that outcome happens. The price is what traders are paying now, so 60¢ means roughly a 60% chance. Bid is the best offer to buy, ask the best offer to sell.
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Foster | 97¢ | 96¢ | 98¢ | 97¢ | ▲3¢ |
| Jeff Walter | 2¢ | 1¢ | 4¢ | 1¢ | 0¢ |
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Foster | 96¢ | 95¢ | 97¢ | 96¢ | 0¢ |
| Jeff Walter | 2¢ | 2¢ | 3¢ | 2¢ | ▼2¢ |
Price history
Democratic odds rose 4.4 points over the past 3 months, from 93% to 98%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Bill Foster (D) | 97.7% | $65 |
| Jeff Walter (R) | 2.3% | $1K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Bill Foster (D) | 97.9% | $20K |
| Jeff Walter (R) | 2.1% | $25K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 IL-11 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Bill Foster a 98% chance of winning the 2026 race for IL-11 over Republican Jeff Walter (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 98%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 98%, Republicans 2%. Polymarket: Democrats 98%, Republicans 2%. The two exchanges differ by 0.2 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have risen 2.5 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Illinois races in 2026
- Illinois GovernorD 97%
- IL-01 HouseD 96%
- IL-10 HouseD 98%
- IL-12 HouseR 97%
- IL-13 HouseD 96%
- IL-14 HouseD 98%
- IL-15 HouseR 96%
- IL-16 HouseR 96%
- IL-17 HouseD 99%
- IL-02 HouseD 97%
- IL-03 HouseD 97%
- IL-04 HouseD 95%
- IL-05 HouseD 97%
- IL-06 HouseD 97%
- IL-07 HouseD 98%
- IL-08 HouseD 94%
- IL-09 HouseD 96%
- Illinois SenateD 98%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
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Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 IL-11 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/il-11/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.