2026 Illinois · U.S. House

IL-17 House race odds

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Eric Sorensen a 99% chance of winning the 2026 race for IL-17 over Republican Dillan Vancil (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 100%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

Eric Sorensen (D)99%
Dillan Vancil (R) 1%
Market rating
Safe D
Kalshi (D / R)
97.5% / 2.5%
Polymarket (D / R)
99.6% / 0.4%
Gap between exchanges
2.1 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds rose 11.9 points over the past 3 months, from 87% to 99%.

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 5Aug 19Oct 3
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Jul 5 – Oct 3

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Eric Sorensen (D)97.5%$3K
Dillan Vancil (R)2.5%$4K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Eric Sorensen (D)99.6%$12K
Dillan Vancil (R)0.4%$17K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 IL-17 House race?

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Eric Sorensen a 99% chance of winning the 2026 race for IL-17 over Republican Dillan Vancil (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 100%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 97%, Republicans 3%. Polymarket: Democrats 100%, Republicans 0%. The two exchanges differ by 2.1 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds have risen 1.6 points since Sep 26, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other Illinois races in 2026

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Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 IL-17 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/il-17/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.