2026 Illinois · U.S. House

IL-15 House race odds

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Mary Miller a 96% chance of winning the 2026 race for IL-15 over Democrat Jennifer Todd (Kalshi 96%, Polymarket 96%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

Jennifer Todd (D)4%
Mary Miller (R) 96%
Market rating
Safe R
Kalshi (D / R)
4.3% / 95.7%
Polymarket (D / R)
3.6% / 96.4%
Gap between exchanges
0.7 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds fell 2.5 points over the past 3 months, from 7% to 4%.

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 5Aug 19Oct 3
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Jul 5 – Oct 3

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Mary Miller (R)95.7%$1K
Jennifer Todd (D)4.3%$2K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Mary Miller (R)96.4%$20K
Jennifer Todd (D)3.6%$24K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 IL-15 House race?

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Mary Miller a 96% chance of winning the 2026 race for IL-15 over Democrat Jennifer Todd (Kalshi 96%, Polymarket 96%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 4%, Republicans 96%. Polymarket: Democrats 4%, Republicans 96%. The two exchanges differ by 0.7 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other Illinois races in 2026

Closest House races in 2026

Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 IL-15 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/il-15/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.