2026 Illinois · U.S. House

IL-16 House race odds

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Darin LaHood a 96% chance of winning the 2026 race for IL-16 over Democrat Paul Nolley (Kalshi 94%, Polymarket 97%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

Paul Nolley (D)4%
Darin LaHood (R) 96%
Market rating
Safe R
Kalshi (D / R)
5.5% / 94.5%
Polymarket (D / R)
3.4% / 96.6%
Gap between exchanges
2.1 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds fell 7.0 points over the past 3 months, from 12% to 4%.

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 5Aug 19Oct 3
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Jul 5 – Oct 3

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Darin LaHood (R)94.5%$11K
Paul Nolley (D)5.5%$20K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Darin LaHood (R)96.6%$21K
Paul Nolley (D)3.4%$39K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 IL-16 House race?

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Darin LaHood a 96% chance of winning the 2026 race for IL-16 over Democrat Paul Nolley (Kalshi 94%, Polymarket 97%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 6%, Republicans 94%. Polymarket: Democrats 3%, Republicans 97%. The two exchanges differ by 2.1 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds have risen 3.2 points since Sep 26, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other Illinois races in 2026

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Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 IL-16 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/il-16/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.