2026 New Jersey · U.S. House
NJ-12 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Adam Hamawy a 97% chance of winning the 2026 race for NJ-12 over Republican Gregg Mele (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 97%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 96.5% / 3.5%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 96.8% / 3.2%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.2 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Share prices
Each contract pays $1 if that outcome happens. The price is what traders are paying now, so 60¢ means roughly a 60% chance. Bid is the best offer to buy, ask the best offer to sell.
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Hamawy | 94¢ | 93¢ | 96¢ | 96¢ | 0¢ |
| Gregg Mele | 3¢ | 2¢ | 5¢ | 5¢ | 0¢ |
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Hamawy | 97¢ | 96¢ | 98¢ | 96¢ | 0¢ |
| Gregg Mele | 3¢ | 2¢ | 4¢ | 2¢ | 0¢ |
Price history
Democratic odds rose 2.3 points over the past 3 months, from 94% to 97%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Hamawy (D) | 96.5% | $8K |
| Gregg Mele (R) | 3.5% | $2K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Hamawy (D) | 96.8% | $21K |
| Gregg Mele (R) | 3.2% | $9K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 NJ-12 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Adam Hamawy a 97% chance of winning the 2026 race for NJ-12 over Republican Gregg Mele (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 97%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 97%, Republicans 3%. Polymarket: Democrats 97%, Republicans 3%. The two exchanges differ by 0.2 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other New Jersey races in 2026
- NJ-01 HouseD 95%
- NJ-10 HouseD 98%
- NJ-11 HouseD 96%
- NJ-02 HouseR 79%
- NJ-03 HouseD 97%
- NJ-04 HouseR 96%
- NJ-05 HouseD 98%
- NJ-06 HouseD 97%
- NJ-07 HouseD 89%
- NJ-08 HouseD 97%
- NJ-09 HouseD 97%
- New Jersey SenateD 98%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 NJ-12 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/nj-12/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.