2026 New Jersey · U.S. House
NJ-11 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Analilia Mejia a 96% chance of winning the 2026 race for NJ-11 over Republican Joe Hathaway (Kalshi 96%, Polymarket 96%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 96.0% / 4.0%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 96.0% / 4.0%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.0 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Share prices
Each contract pays $1 if that outcome happens. The price is what traders are paying now, so 60¢ means roughly a 60% chance. Bid is the best offer to buy, ask the best offer to sell.
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Analilia Mejia | 96¢ | 94¢ | 98¢ | 94¢ | 0¢ |
| Joe Hathaway | 4¢ | 2¢ | 6¢ | 1¢ | 0¢ |
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Analilia Mejia | 96¢ | 95¢ | 96¢ | 96¢ | — |
| Joe Hathaway | 4¢ | 3¢ | 5¢ | 3¢ | — |
Price history
Democratic odds rose 2.6 points over the past 3 months, from 93% to 96%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Analilia Mejia (D) | 96.0% | $12K |
| Joe Hathaway (R) | 4.0% | $6K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Analilia Mejia (D) | 96.0% | $24K |
| Joe Hathaway (R) | 4.0% | $24K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 NJ-11 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Analilia Mejia a 96% chance of winning the 2026 race for NJ-11 over Republican Joe Hathaway (Kalshi 96%, Polymarket 96%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 96%, Republicans 4%. Polymarket: Democrats 96%, Republicans 4%. The two exchanges differ by 0.0 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other New Jersey races in 2026
- NJ-01 HouseD 95%
- NJ-10 HouseD 98%
- NJ-12 HouseD 97%
- NJ-02 HouseR 79%
- NJ-03 HouseD 97%
- NJ-04 HouseR 96%
- NJ-05 HouseD 98%
- NJ-06 HouseD 97%
- NJ-07 HouseD 89%
- NJ-08 HouseD 97%
- NJ-09 HouseD 97%
- New Jersey SenateD 98%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 NJ-11 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/nj-11/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.