2026 New Jersey · U.S. House

NJ-10 House race odds

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat LaMonica McIver a 98% chance of winning the 2026 race for NJ-10 over Republican Carmen Bucco (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 98%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

LaMonica McIver (D)98%
Carmen Bucco (R) 2%
Market rating
Safe D
Kalshi (D / R)
98.0% / 2.0%
Polymarket (D / R)
97.9% / 2.1%
Gap between exchanges
0.2 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Share prices

Each contract pays $1 if that outcome happens. The price is what traders are paying now, so 60¢ means roughly a 60% chance. Bid is the best offer to buy, ask the best offer to sell.

KalshiTrade on Kalshi ↗
ContractPriceBidAskLast24h
LaMonica McIver97¢94¢100¢96¢0¢
Carmen Bucco2¢0¢4¢4¢0¢
Volume $2KAs of Oct 3, 2026, 2:14 AM EDT
PolymarketTrade on Polymarket ↗
ContractPriceBidAskLast24h
LaMonica McIver98¢97¢99¢96¢0¢
Carmen Bucco2¢1¢3¢4¢0¢
Volume $55KAs of Oct 3, 2026, 2:14 AM EDT

Price history

Democratic odds rose 4.4 points over the past 3 months, from 94% to 98%.

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 5Aug 19Oct 3
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Jul 5 – Oct 3

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
LaMonica McIver (D)98.0%$44
Carmen Bucco (R)2.0%$2K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
LaMonica McIver (D)97.9%$19K
Carmen Bucco (R)2.1%$37K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 NJ-10 House race?

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat LaMonica McIver a 98% chance of winning the 2026 race for NJ-10 over Republican Carmen Bucco (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 98%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 98%, Republicans 2%. Polymarket: Democrats 98%, Republicans 2%. The two exchanges differ by 0.2 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds have risen 1.1 points since Sep 26, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other New Jersey races in 2026

Closest House races in 2026

Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 NJ-10 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/nj-10/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.