2026 Senate
New Jersey Senate race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Cory Booker a 98% chance of winning the 2026 New Jersey Senate race over Republican Justin Murphy (Kalshi 99%, Polymarket 98%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 98.8% / 1.2%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 98.1% / 1.9%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.8 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds rose 3.5 points over the past 3 months, from 95% to 98%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Cory Booker (D) | 98.8% | $12K |
| Justin Murphy (R) | 1.2% | $30K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Cory Booker (D) | 98.1% | $12K |
| Justin Murphy (R) | 1.9% | $10K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 New Jersey Senate race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Cory Booker a 98% chance of winning the 2026 New Jersey Senate race over Republican Justin Murphy (Kalshi 99%, Polymarket 98%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 99%, Republicans 1%. Polymarket: Democrats 98%, Republicans 2%. The two exchanges differ by 0.8 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have risen 1.1 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other New Jersey races in 2026
- NJ-01 HouseD 95%
- NJ-10 HouseD 98%
- NJ-11 HouseD 96%
- NJ-12 HouseD 97%
- NJ-02 HouseR 79%
- NJ-03 HouseD 97%
- NJ-04 HouseR 96%
- NJ-05 HouseD 98%
- NJ-06 HouseD 97%
- NJ-07 HouseD 89%
- NJ-08 HouseD 97%
- NJ-09 HouseD 97%
Closest Senate races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 New Jersey Senate race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/senate/new-jersey/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.