2026 New Jersey · U.S. House

NJ-03 House race odds

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Herb Conaway a 97% chance of winning the 2026 race for NJ-03 over Republican Michael McGuire (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 97%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

Herb Conaway (D)97%
Michael McGuire (R) 3%
Market rating
Safe D
Kalshi (D / R)
97.2% / 2.8%
Polymarket (D / R)
97.0% / 3.0%
Gap between exchanges
0.3 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds rose 4.1 points over the past 3 months, from 93% to 97%.

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 5Aug 19Oct 3
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Jul 5 – Oct 3

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Herb Conaway (D)97.2%$2K
Michael McGuire (R)2.8%$4K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Herb Conaway (D)97.0%$17K
Michael McGuire (R)3.0%$23K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 NJ-03 House race?

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Herb Conaway a 97% chance of winning the 2026 race for NJ-03 over Republican Michael McGuire (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 97%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 97%, Republicans 3%. Polymarket: Democrats 97%, Republicans 3%. The two exchanges differ by 0.3 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds have risen 1.4 points since Sep 26, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

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Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 NJ-03 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/nj-3/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.