2026 Nebraska · U.S. House
NE-01 House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Mike Flood a 82% chance of winning the 2026 race for NE-01 over Democrat Chris Backemeyer (Kalshi 80%, Polymarket 84%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Likely R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 18.5% / 80.5%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 15.8% / 84.2%
- Gap between exchanges
- 2.7 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Flood (R) | 80.5% | $10K |
| Chris Backemeyer (D) | 18.5% | $14K |
| Austin Ahlman (I) | 1.0% | $4K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Flood (R) | 84.2% | $19K |
| Chris Backemeyer (D) | 15.8% | $23K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 NE-01 House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Mike Flood a 82% chance of winning the 2026 race for NE-01 over Democrat Chris Backemeyer (Kalshi 80%, Polymarket 84%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 19%, Republicans 80%. Polymarket: Democrats 16%, Republicans 84%. The two exchanges differ by 2.7 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Nebraska races in 2026
- Nebraska GovernorR 91%
- NE-02 HouseD 92%
- NE-03 HouseR 98%
- Nebraska SenateR 73%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 NE-01 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/ne-1/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.