2026 Nebraska · U.S. House
NE-03 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Adrian Smith a 98% chance of winning the 2026 race for NE-03 over Democrat Becky Stille (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 98%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 3.1% / 96.9%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 1.7% / 98.3%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.3 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds fell 3.1 points over the past 3 months, from 6% to 2%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Adrian Smith (R) | 96.9% | $2K |
| Becky Stille (D) | 3.1% | $857 |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Adrian Smith (R) | 98.3% | $10K |
| Becky Stille (D) | 1.7% | $5K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 NE-03 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Adrian Smith a 98% chance of winning the 2026 race for NE-03 over Democrat Becky Stille (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 98%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 3%, Republicans 97%. Polymarket: Democrats 2%, Republicans 98%. The two exchanges differ by 1.3 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Nebraska races in 2026
- Nebraska GovernorR 91%
- NE-01 HouseR 82%
- NE-02 HouseD 91%
- Nebraska SenateR 73%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 NE-03 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/ne-3/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.