2026 Georgia · U.S. House
GA-04 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Hank Johnson a 98% chance of winning the 2026 race for GA-04 over Republican James Duffie (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 98%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 98.0% / 2.0%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 98.1% / 1.9%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.1 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds fell 0.6 points over the past 3 months, from 99% to 98%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Hank Johnson (D) | 98.0% | $715 |
| James Duffie (R) | 2.0% | $887 |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Hank Johnson (D) | 98.1% | $30K |
| James Duffie (R) | 1.9% | $18K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 GA-04 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Hank Johnson a 98% chance of winning the 2026 race for GA-04 over Republican James Duffie (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 98%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 98%, Republicans 2%. Polymarket: Democrats 98%, Republicans 2%. The two exchanges differ by 0.1 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Georgia races in 2026
- Georgia GovernorR 52%
- GA-01 HouseR 92%
- GA-10 HouseR 94%
- GA-11 HouseR 95%
- GA-12 HouseR 92%
- GA-13 HouseD 97%
- GA-14 HouseR 96%
- GA-02 HouseD 94%
- GA-03 HouseR 96%
- GA-05 HouseD 99%
- GA-06 HouseD 97%
- GA-07 HouseR 94%
- GA-08 HouseR 95%
- GA-09 HouseR 95%
- Georgia SenateD 96%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
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Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 GA-04 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/ga-4/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.