2026 Georgia · U.S. House
GA-05 House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Nikema Williams a 99% chance of winning the 2026 race for GA-05 over Republican John Oscar Salvesen (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 100%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 98.0% / 2.0%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 99.8% / 0.2%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.8 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Nikema Williams (D) | 98.0% | $275 |
| John Salvesen (R) | 2.0% | $1K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Nikema Williams (D) | 99.8% | $17K |
| John Oscar Salvesen (R) | 0.2% | $36K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 GA-05 House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Nikema Williams a 99% chance of winning the 2026 race for GA-05 over Republican John Oscar Salvesen (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 100%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 98%, Republicans 2%. Polymarket: Democrats 100%, Republicans 0%. The two exchanges differ by 1.8 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Georgia races in 2026
- Georgia GovernorR 52%
- GA-01 HouseR 92%
- GA-10 HouseR 94%
- GA-11 HouseR 95%
- GA-12 HouseR 93%
- GA-13 HouseD 97%
- GA-14 HouseR 96%
- GA-02 HouseD 94%
- GA-03 HouseR 96%
- GA-04 HouseD 98%
- GA-06 HouseD 97%
- GA-07 HouseR 94%
- GA-08 HouseR 95%
- GA-09 HouseR 95%
- Georgia SenateD 97%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
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Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 GA-05 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/ga-5/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.