2026 Senate
Idaho Senate race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Jim Risch a 93% chance of winning the 2026 Idaho Senate race over Democrat David Roth (Kalshi 92%, Polymarket 94%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 0.5% / 92.1%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 0.0% / 94.1%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.4 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Share prices
Each contract pays $1 if that outcome happens. The price is what traders are paying now, so 60¢ means roughly a 60% chance. Bid is the best offer to buy, ask the best offer to sell.
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Risch | 93¢ | 93¢ | 93¢ | 93¢ | 0¢ |
| Todd Achilles | 8¢ | 7¢ | 8¢ | 8¢ | ▲1¢ |
| David Roth | 1¢ | 0¢ | 1¢ | 1¢ | 0¢ |
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Risch | 94¢ | 94¢ | 95¢ | 97¢ | 0¢ |
| Todd Achilles | 6¢ | 6¢ | 6¢ | 6¢ | ▲2¢ |
| Democratic | 0¢ | — | 0¢ | 0¢ | — |
Price history
Democratic odds fell 5.2 points over the past 3 months, from 5% to 0%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Jim Risch (R) | 92.1% | $103K |
| Todd Achilles (I) | 7.5% | $110K |
| David Roth (D) | 0.5% | $58K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Jim Risch (R) | 94.1% | $79K |
| Todd Achilles (I) | 5.8% | $15K |
| Democratic candidate | 0.0% | $19K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 Idaho Senate race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Jim Risch a 93% chance of winning the 2026 Idaho Senate race over Democrat David Roth (Kalshi 92%, Polymarket 94%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 0%, Republicans 92%. Polymarket: Democrats 0%, Republicans 94%. The two exchanges differ by 0.4 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Idaho races in 2026
- Idaho GovernorR 97%
- ID-01 HouseR 96%
- ID-02 HouseR 96%
Closest Senate races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Idaho Senate race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/senate/idaho/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.