2026 Idaho · U.S. House
ID-02 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Mike Simpson a 96% chance of winning the 2026 race for ID-02 over Democrat Ellie Gilbreath (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 96%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 4.8% / 95.2%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 3.8% / 96.2%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.0 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds fell 2.2 points over the past 3 months, from 7% to 4%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Simpson (R) | 95.2% | $2K |
| Elinor Gilbreath (D) | 4.8% | $2K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Simpson (R) | 96.2% | $14K |
| Ellie Gilbreath (D) | 3.8% | $25K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 ID-02 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Mike Simpson a 96% chance of winning the 2026 race for ID-02 over Democrat Ellie Gilbreath (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 96%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 5%, Republicans 95%. Polymarket: Democrats 4%, Republicans 96%. The two exchanges differ by 1.0 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Idaho races in 2026
- Idaho GovernorR 97%
- ID-01 HouseR 96%
- Idaho SenateR 93%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 ID-02 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/id-2/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.