2026 Minnesota · U.S. House

MN-06 House race odds

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Tom Emmer a 91% chance of winning the 2026 race for MN-06 over Democrat Doug Chapin (Kalshi 91%, Polymarket 91%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

Doug Chapin (D)9%
Tom Emmer (R) 91%
Market rating
Safe R
Kalshi (D / R)
9.0% / 91.0%
Polymarket (D / R)
8.6% / 91.4%
Gap between exchanges
0.5 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds fell 9.7 points over the past 3 months, from 18% to 9%.

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 5Aug 19Oct 3
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Jul 5 – Oct 3

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Tom Emmer (R)91.0%$9K
Doug Chapin (D)9.0%$11K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Tom Emmer (R)91.4%$26K
Doug Chapin (D)8.6%$20K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 MN-06 House race?

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Tom Emmer a 91% chance of winning the 2026 race for MN-06 over Democrat Doug Chapin (Kalshi 91%, Polymarket 91%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 9%, Republicans 91%. Polymarket: Democrats 9%, Republicans 91%. The two exchanges differ by 0.5 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other Minnesota races in 2026

Closest House races in 2026

Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 MN-06 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/mn-6/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.