2026 Minnesota · U.S. House
MN-05 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Ilhan Omar a 98% chance of winning the 2026 race for MN-05 over Republican John Nagel (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 99%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 97.9% / 1.6%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 99.1% / 0.9%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.2 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds rose 3.9 points over the past 3 months, from 95% to 98%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Ilhan Omar (D) | 97.9% | $12K |
| John Nagel (R) | 1.6% | $7K |
| DeVelle Jackson (I) | 0.5% | — |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Ilhan Omar (D) | 99.1% | $25K |
| John Nagel (R) | 0.9% | $32K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 MN-05 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Ilhan Omar a 98% chance of winning the 2026 race for MN-05 over Republican John Nagel (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 99%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 98%, Republicans 2%. Polymarket: Democrats 99%, Republicans 1%. The two exchanges differ by 1.2 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have risen 2.8 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Minnesota races in 2026
- Minnesota GovernorD 95%
- MN-01 HouseR 77%
- MN-02 HouseD 95%
- MN-03 HouseD 97%
- MN-04 HouseD 96%
- MN-06 HouseR 91%
- MN-07 HouseR 94%
- MN-08 HouseR 87%
- Minnesota SenateD 89%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 MN-05 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/mn-5/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.