2026 Senate
Minnesota Senate race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Peggy Flanagan a 89% chance of winning the 2026 Minnesota Senate race over Republican Michele Tafoya (Kalshi 88%, Polymarket 91%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Likely D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 87.5% / 12.5%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 90.5% / 9.5%
- Gap between exchanges
- 3.0 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Share prices
Each contract pays $1 if that outcome happens. The price is what traders are paying now, so 60¢ means roughly a 60% chance. Bid is the best offer to buy, ask the best offer to sell.
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peggy Flanagan | 88¢ | 87¢ | 88¢ | 88¢ | ▼1¢ |
| Michele Tafoya | 13¢ | 12¢ | 13¢ | 13¢ | ▲1¢ |
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peggy Flanagan | 91¢ | 90¢ | 92¢ | 91¢ | ▲2¢ |
| Michele Tafoya | 10¢ | 9¢ | 10¢ | 11¢ | ▼1¢ |
Price history
Democratic odds fell 3.0 points over the past 3 months, from 92% to 89%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Peggy Flanagan (D) | 87.5% | $360K |
| Michele Tafoya (R) | 12.5% | $910K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Peggy Flanagan (D) | 90.5% | $87K |
| Michele Tafoya (R) | 9.5% | $56K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 Minnesota Senate race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Peggy Flanagan a 89% chance of winning the 2026 Minnesota Senate race over Republican Michele Tafoya (Kalshi 88%, Polymarket 91%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 88%, Republicans 13%. Polymarket: Democrats 91%, Republicans 9%. The two exchanges differ by 3.0 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have fallen 1.5 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Minnesota races in 2026
- Minnesota GovernorD 95%
- MN-01 HouseR 77%
- MN-02 HouseD 95%
- MN-03 HouseD 97%
- MN-04 HouseD 96%
- MN-05 HouseD 98%
- MN-06 HouseR 91%
- MN-07 HouseR 94%
- MN-08 HouseR 87%
Closest Senate races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Minnesota Senate race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/senate/minnesota/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.