2026 Alabama · U.S. House

AL-02 House race odds

As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Rhett Marques a 75% chance of winning the 2026 race for AL-02 over Democrat Shomari Figures (Kalshi 76%, Polymarket 74%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

Shomari Figures (D)25%
Rhett Marques (R) 75%
Market rating
Lean R
Kalshi (D / R)
24.5% / 75.5%
Polymarket (D / R)
26.2% / 73.8%
Gap between exchanges
1.7 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.

0%25%50%75%100%Oct 2Oct 2Oct 2
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Oct 2 – Oct 2

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Rhett Marques (R)75.5%$62K
Shomari Figures (D)24.5%$75K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Rhett Marques (R)73.8%$29K
Shomari Figures (D)26.2%$40K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 AL-02 House race?

As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Rhett Marques a 75% chance of winning the 2026 race for AL-02 over Democrat Shomari Figures (Kalshi 76%, Polymarket 74%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 25%, Republicans 76%. Polymarket: Democrats 26%, Republicans 74%. The two exchanges differ by 1.7 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other Alabama races in 2026

Closest House races in 2026

Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 AL-02 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/al-2/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.