2026 Alabama · U.S. House

AL-04 House race odds

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Robert Aderholt a 99% chance of winning the 2026 race for AL-04 over Democrat Amanda Pusczek (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 100%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

Amanda Pusczek (D)1%
Robert Aderholt (R) 99%
Market rating
Safe R
Kalshi (D / R)
2.0% / 98.0%
Polymarket (D / R)
0.5% / 99.5%
Gap between exchanges
1.6 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds fell 3.2 points over the past 3 months, from 4% to 1%.

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 5Aug 19Oct 3
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Jul 5 – Oct 3

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Robert Aderholt (R)98.0%$333
Amanda Pusczek (D)2.0%$1K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Robert Aderholt (R)99.5%$20K
Amanda Pusczek (D)0.5%$18K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 AL-04 House race?

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Robert Aderholt a 99% chance of winning the 2026 race for AL-04 over Democrat Amanda Pusczek (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 100%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 2%, Republicans 98%. Polymarket: Democrats 0%, Republicans 100%. The two exchanges differ by 1.6 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other Alabama races in 2026

Closest House races in 2026

Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 AL-04 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/al-4/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.