2026 Senate
South Dakota Senate race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Mike Rounds a 92% chance of winning the 2026 South Dakota Senate race over Democrat Julian Beaudion (Kalshi 92%, Polymarket 91%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 0.3% / 92.2%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 0.1% / 91.3%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.1 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds fell 6.4 points over the past 3 months, from 7% to 0%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Rounds (R) | 92.2% | $77K |
| Brian Bengs (I) | 7.5% | $106K |
| Julian Beaudion (D) | 0.3% | $32K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Rounds (R) | 91.3% | $29K |
| Brian Bengs (I) | 8.5% | $5K |
| Democratic candidate | 0.1% | $13K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 South Dakota Senate race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Mike Rounds a 92% chance of winning the 2026 South Dakota Senate race over Democrat Julian Beaudion (Kalshi 92%, Polymarket 91%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 0%, Republicans 92%. Polymarket: Democrats 0%, Republicans 91%. The two exchanges differ by 0.1 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other South Dakota races in 2026
- South Dakota GovernorR 97%
- SD-AL HouseR 96%
Closest Senate races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 South Dakota Senate race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/senate/south-dakota/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.