2026 Governor
South Dakota governor race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Larry Rhoden a 97% chance of winning the 2026 South Dakota governor race over Democrat Dan Ahlers (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 97%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 3.0% / 97.0%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 3.0% / 97.0%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.1 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds fell 4.3 points over the past 3 months, from 7% to 3%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Larry Rhoden (R) | 97.0% | $5K |
| Dan Ahlers (D) | 3.0% | $5K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Larry Rhoden (R) | 97.0% | $9K |
| Dan Ahlers (D) | 3.0% | $18K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 South Dakota governor race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Larry Rhoden a 97% chance of winning the 2026 South Dakota governor race over Democrat Dan Ahlers (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 97%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 3%, Republicans 97%. Polymarket: Democrats 3%, Republicans 97%. The two exchanges differ by 0.1 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other South Dakota races in 2026
- SD-AL HouseR 96%
- South Dakota SenateR 92%
Closest governor races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 South Dakota governor race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/governor/south-dakota/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.