2026 South Dakota · U.S. House
SD-AL House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Marty Jackley a 96% chance of winning the 2026 race for SD-AL over Democrat Nikki Gronli (Kalshi 96%, Polymarket 95%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 4.3% / 95.7%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 4.6% / 95.4%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.2 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Marty Jackley (R) | 95.7% | $2K |
| Nicole Gronli (D) | 4.3% | $4K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Marty Jackley (R) | 95.4% | $25K |
| Nikki Gronli (D) | 4.6% | $8K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 SD-AL House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Marty Jackley a 96% chance of winning the 2026 race for SD-AL over Democrat Nikki Gronli (Kalshi 96%, Polymarket 95%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 4%, Republicans 96%. Polymarket: Democrats 5%, Republicans 95%. The two exchanges differ by 0.2 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other South Dakota races in 2026
- South Dakota GovernorR 97%
- South Dakota SenateR 92%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 SD-AL House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/sd-al/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.