2026 Missouri · U.S. House

MO-05 House race odds

As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Emanuel Cleaver a 97% chance of winning the 2026 race for MO-05 over Republican Rick Brattin (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 96%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

Emanuel Cleaver (D)97%
Rick Brattin (R) 3%
Market rating
Safe D
Kalshi (D / R)
97.1% / 2.9%
Polymarket (D / R)
96.1% / 3.9%
Gap between exchanges
1.0 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.

0%25%50%75%100%Oct 2Oct 2Oct 2
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Oct 2 – Oct 2

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Democratic candidate97.1%$61K
Republican candidate2.9%$97K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Emanuel Cleaver (D)96.1%$35K
Rick Brattin (R)3.9%$44K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 MO-05 House race?

As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Emanuel Cleaver a 97% chance of winning the 2026 race for MO-05 over Republican Rick Brattin (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 96%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 97%, Republicans 3%. Polymarket: Democrats 96%, Republicans 4%. The two exchanges differ by 1.0 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other Missouri races in 2026

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Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 MO-05 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/mo-5/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.