2026 Missouri · U.S. House
MO-01 House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Wesley Bell a 98% chance of winning the 2026 race for MO-01 over Republican Paul Berry (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 99%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 97.0% / 3.0%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 98.6% / 1.4%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.7 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic candidate | 97.0% | $2K |
| Republican candidate | 3.0% | $805 |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Wesley Bell (D) | 98.6% | $23K |
| Paul Berry (R) | 1.4% | $14K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 MO-01 House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Wesley Bell a 98% chance of winning the 2026 race for MO-01 over Republican Paul Berry (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 99%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 97%, Republicans 3%. Polymarket: Democrats 99%, Republicans 1%. The two exchanges differ by 1.7 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Missouri races in 2026
- MO-02 HouseR 74%
- MO-03 HouseR 96%
- MO-04 HouseR 94%
- MO-05 HouseD 97%
- MO-06 HouseR 95%
- MO-07 HouseR 97%
- MO-08 HouseR 98%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 MO-01 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/mo-1/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.