2026 Missouri · U.S. House
MO-04 House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Mark Alford a 94% chance of winning the 2026 race for MO-04 over Democrat Jordan Herrera (Kalshi 94%, Polymarket 94%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 5.5% / 94.5%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 5.6% / 94.4%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.1 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Republican candidate | 94.5% | $3K |
| Democratic candidate | 5.5% | $4K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Alford (R) | 94.4% | $34K |
| Jordan Herrera (D) | 5.6% | $19K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 MO-04 House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Mark Alford a 94% chance of winning the 2026 race for MO-04 over Democrat Jordan Herrera (Kalshi 94%, Polymarket 94%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 6%, Republicans 94%. Polymarket: Democrats 6%, Republicans 94%. The two exchanges differ by 0.1 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Missouri races in 2026
- MO-01 HouseD 98%
- MO-02 HouseR 74%
- MO-03 HouseR 96%
- MO-05 HouseD 97%
- MO-06 HouseR 95%
- MO-07 HouseR 97%
- MO-08 HouseR 98%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 MO-04 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/mo-4/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.