2026 Maine · U.S. House
ME-02 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Paul LePage a 65% chance of winning the 2026 race for ME-02 over Democrat Matt Dunlap (Kalshi 65%; one exchange lists this race).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Lean R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 34.5% / 65.5%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- Not listed
- Gap between exchanges
- —
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged over the past 3 months, at 35%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Paul LePage (R) | 65.5% | $44K |
| Matt Dunlap (D) | 34.5% | $50K |
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn't list this race.
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 ME-02 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Paul LePage a 65% chance of winning the 2026 race for ME-02 over Democrat Matt Dunlap (Kalshi 65%; one exchange lists this race).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 35%, Republicans 65%.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have fallen 1.3 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Maine races in 2026
- Maine GovernorD 94%
- ME-01 HouseD 97%
- Maine SenateD 59%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 ME-02 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/me-2/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.