2026 Maine · U.S. House
ME-01 House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Chellie Pingree a 97% chance of winning the 2026 race for ME-01 over Republican Ronald Russell (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 96%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 97.8% / 2.2%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 96.1% / 3.9%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.7 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Chellie Pingree (D) | 97.8% | $3K |
| Ronald Russell (R) | 2.2% | $1K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Chellie Pingree (D) | 96.1% | $33K |
| Ronald Russell (R) | 3.9% | $15K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 ME-01 House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Chellie Pingree a 97% chance of winning the 2026 race for ME-01 over Republican Ronald Russell (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 96%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 98%, Republicans 2%. Polymarket: Democrats 96%, Republicans 4%. The two exchanges differ by 1.7 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Maine races in 2026
- Maine GovernorD 94%
- ME-02 HouseR 65%
- Maine SenateD 60%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 ME-01 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/me-1/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.