2026 Governor
Maine governor race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Hannah Pingree a 94% chance of winning the 2026 Maine governor race over Republican Robert Charles (Kalshi 93%, Polymarket 95%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 93.0% / 6.0%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 95.2% / 4.8%
- Gap between exchanges
- 2.2 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds rose 2.6 points over the past 3 months, from 91% to 94%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Hannah Pingree (D) | 93.0% | $30K |
| Robert Charles (R) | 6.0% | $36K |
| Rick Bennett (I) | 1.0% | $3K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Hannah Pingree (D) | 95.2% | $28K |
| Robert Charles (R) | 4.8% | $8K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 Maine governor race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Hannah Pingree a 94% chance of winning the 2026 Maine governor race over Republican Robert Charles (Kalshi 93%, Polymarket 95%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 93%, Republicans 6%. Polymarket: Democrats 95%, Republicans 5%. The two exchanges differ by 2.2 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have fallen 0.6 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Maine races in 2026
- ME-01 HouseD 97%
- ME-02 HouseR 65%
- Maine SenateD 59%
Closest governor races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Maine governor race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/governor/maine/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.