2026 Senate

Oklahoma Senate race odds

As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Kevin Hern a 98% chance of winning the 2026 Oklahoma Senate race over Democrat N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 98%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas (D)2%
Kevin Hern (R) 98%
Market rating
Safe R
Kalshi (D / R)
2.2% / 97.8%
Polymarket (D / R)
1.5% / 98.5%
Gap between exchanges
0.7 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.

0%25%50%75%100%Oct 2Oct 2Oct 2
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Oct 2 – Oct 2

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Kevin Hern (R)97.8%$21K
N’Kiyla Thomas (D)2.2%$19K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Kevin Hern (R)98.5%$20K
N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas (D)1.5%$7K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 Oklahoma Senate race?

As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Kevin Hern a 98% chance of winning the 2026 Oklahoma Senate race over Democrat N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 98%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 2%, Republicans 98%. Polymarket: Democrats 2%, Republicans 98%. The two exchanges differ by 0.7 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other Oklahoma races in 2026

Closest Senate races in 2026

Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Oklahoma Senate race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/senate/oklahoma/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.