2026 Oklahoma · U.S. House
OK-05 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Stephanie Bice a 87% chance of winning the 2026 race for OK-05 over Democrat Jena Nelson (Kalshi 87%, Polymarket 86%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Likely R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 12.9% / 87.1%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 13.6% / 86.4%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.7 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds rose 2.7 points over the past 3 months, from 11% to 13%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Stephanie Bice (R) | 87.1% | $6K |
| Jena Nelson (D) | 12.9% | $11K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Stephanie Bice (R) | 86.4% | $12K |
| Jena Nelson (D) | 13.6% | $7K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 OK-05 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Stephanie Bice a 87% chance of winning the 2026 race for OK-05 over Democrat Jena Nelson (Kalshi 87%, Polymarket 86%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 13%, Republicans 87%. Polymarket: Democrats 14%, Republicans 86%. The two exchanges differ by 0.7 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Oklahoma races in 2026
- Oklahoma GovernorR 92%
- OK-01 HouseR 94%
- OK-02 HouseR 98%
- OK-03 HouseR 99%
- OK-04 HouseR 98%
- Oklahoma SenateR 98%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 OK-05 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/ok-5/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.