2026 Oklahoma · U.S. House
OK-01 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Mark Tedford a 94% chance of winning the 2026 race for OK-01 over Democrat John Croisant (Kalshi 93%, Polymarket 95%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 6.9% / 93.1%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 4.5% / 95.5%
- Gap between exchanges
- 2.4 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Share prices
Each contract pays $1 if that outcome happens. The price is what traders are paying now, so 60¢ means roughly a 60% chance. Bid is the best offer to buy, ask the best offer to sell.
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Tedford | 92¢ | 92¢ | 93¢ | 93¢ | ▲3¢ |
| John Croisant | 7¢ | 7¢ | 7¢ | 10¢ | 0¢ |
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Tedford | 95¢ | 94¢ | 95¢ | 95¢ | ▲2¢ |
| John Croisant | 5¢ | 4¢ | 5¢ | 7¢ | ▼1¢ |
Price history
Democratic odds fell 4.8 points over the past 3 months, from 11% to 6%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Tedford (R) | 93.1% | $2K |
| John Croisant (D) | 6.9% | $3K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Tedford (R) | 95.5% | $20K |
| John Croisant (D) | 4.5% | $16K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 OK-01 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Mark Tedford a 94% chance of winning the 2026 race for OK-01 over Democrat John Croisant (Kalshi 93%, Polymarket 95%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 7%, Republicans 93%. Polymarket: Democrats 5%, Republicans 95%. The two exchanges differ by 2.4 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have fallen 2.0 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Oklahoma races in 2026
- Oklahoma GovernorR 92%
- OK-02 HouseR 98%
- OK-03 HouseR 99%
- OK-04 HouseR 98%
- OK-05 HouseR 87%
- Oklahoma SenateR 98%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 OK-01 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/ok-1/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.