2026 Maryland · U.S. House

MD-01 House race odds

As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Andy Harris a 89% chance of winning the 2026 race for MD-01 over Democrat Dan Schwartz (Kalshi 89%, Polymarket 89%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

Dan Schwartz (D)11%
Andy Harris (R) 89%
Market rating
Likely R
Kalshi (D / R)
10.9% / 89.1%
Polymarket (D / R)
11.4% / 88.6%
Gap between exchanges
0.5 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.

0%25%50%75%100%Oct 2Oct 2Oct 2
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Oct 2 – Oct 2

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Andy Harris (R)89.1%$11K
Dan Schwartz (D)10.9%$16K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Andy Harris (R)88.6%$35K
Dan Schwartz (D)11.4%$28K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 MD-01 House race?

As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Andy Harris a 89% chance of winning the 2026 race for MD-01 over Democrat Dan Schwartz (Kalshi 89%, Polymarket 89%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 11%, Republicans 89%. Polymarket: Democrats 11%, Republicans 89%. The two exchanges differ by 0.5 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other Maryland races in 2026

Closest House races in 2026

Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 MD-01 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/md-1/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.