2026 Maryland · U.S. House

MD-03 House race odds

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Sarah Elfreth a 96% chance of winning the 2026 race for MD-03 over Republican Berney Flowers (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 97%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

Sarah Elfreth (D)96%
Berney Flowers (R) 4%
Market rating
Safe D
Kalshi (D / R)
95.1% / 4.9%
Polymarket (D / R)
97.5% / 2.5%
Gap between exchanges
2.4 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds rose 1.7 points over the past 3 months, from 95% to 96%.

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 5Aug 19Oct 3
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Jul 5 – Oct 3

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Sarah Elfreth (D)95.1%$1K
Berney Flowers (R)4.9%$852

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Sarah Elfreth (D)97.5%$21K
Berney Flowers (R)2.5%$32K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 MD-03 House race?

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Sarah Elfreth a 96% chance of winning the 2026 race for MD-03 over Republican Berney Flowers (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 97%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 95%, Republicans 5%. Polymarket: Democrats 97%, Republicans 3%. The two exchanges differ by 2.4 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other Maryland races in 2026

Closest House races in 2026

Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 MD-03 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/md-3/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.