2026 Maryland · U.S. House

MD-07 House race odds

As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Kweisi Mfume a 97% chance of winning the 2026 race for MD-07 over Republican Scott Collier (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 97%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

Kweisi Mfume (D)97%
Scott Collier (R) 3%
Market rating
Safe D
Kalshi (D / R)
97.4% / 2.6%
Polymarket (D / R)
97.2% / 2.8%
Gap between exchanges
0.2 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.

0%25%50%75%100%Oct 2Oct 2Oct 2
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Oct 2 – Oct 2

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Kweisi Mfume (D)97.4%$114
Scott Collier (R)2.6%$349

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Kweisi Mfume (D)97.2%$15K
Scott Collier (R)2.8%$9K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 MD-07 House race?

As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Kweisi Mfume a 97% chance of winning the 2026 race for MD-07 over Republican Scott Collier (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 97%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 97%, Republicans 3%. Polymarket: Democrats 97%, Republicans 3%. The two exchanges differ by 0.2 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other Maryland races in 2026

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Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 MD-07 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/md-7/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.