2026 Arizona · U.S. House

AZ-01 House race odds

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Amish Shah a 79% chance of winning the 2026 race for AZ-01 over Republican Jay Feely (Kalshi 79%, Polymarket 79%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

Amish Shah (D)79%
Jay Feely (R) 21%
Market rating
Likely D
Kalshi (D / R)
78.5% / 21.5%
Polymarket (D / R)
78.7% / 21.3%
Gap between exchanges
0.2 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds rose 3.5 points over the past 3 months, from 75% to 79%.

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 5Aug 19Oct 3
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Jul 5 – Oct 3

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Amish Shah (D)78.5%$34K
Jay Feely (R)21.5%$48K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Amish Shah (D)78.7%$41K
Jay Feely (R)21.3%$22K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 AZ-01 House race?

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Amish Shah a 79% chance of winning the 2026 race for AZ-01 over Republican Jay Feely (Kalshi 79%, Polymarket 79%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 79%, Republicans 22%. Polymarket: Democrats 79%, Republicans 21%. The two exchanges differ by 0.2 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds have risen 2.1 points since Sep 26, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other Arizona races in 2026

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Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 AZ-01 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/az-1/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.