2026 Arizona · U.S. House

AZ-09 House race odds

As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Paul Gosar a 95% chance of winning the 2026 race for AZ-09 over Democrat Dani Sterbinsky (Kalshi 94%, Polymarket 97%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

Dani Sterbinsky (D)5%
Paul Gosar (R) 95%
Market rating
Safe R
Kalshi (D / R)
5.8% / 94.2%
Polymarket (D / R)
3.4% / 96.6%
Gap between exchanges
2.4 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.

0%25%50%75%100%Oct 2Oct 2Oct 2
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Oct 2 – Oct 2

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Paul Gosar (R)94.2%$3K
Dani Sterbinsky (D)5.8%$1K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Paul Gosar (R)96.6%$20K
Dani Sterbinsky (D)3.4%$16K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 AZ-09 House race?

As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Paul Gosar a 95% chance of winning the 2026 race for AZ-09 over Democrat Dani Sterbinsky (Kalshi 94%, Polymarket 97%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 6%, Republicans 94%. Polymarket: Democrats 3%, Republicans 97%. The two exchanges differ by 2.4 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other Arizona races in 2026

Closest House races in 2026

Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 AZ-09 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/az-9/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.